The Scout Mindset

2021-08-13
26 min read

Personal Thoughts

This was a great book! I read the whole thing in three days!

It felt like a practical version of [[Thinking, Fast and Slow]]?? , but taken from a more self-help direction and written by a member of the rationalist community. There wasn’t much beating around the bush, it was pretty direct the whole time and stated things very, very clearly. I also liked how she included a bunch of examples and that the examples didn’t have any particular bias.

Notes

These are flashcards as explained in [[Albatross, how I take notes]]B . Some of them are written from my perspective even though they are definitely her ideas in the book. I’m not sure if it has had any effect whatsoever, but the hope was that it would make it sink in a little bit more when reviewing Anki (inspired by ‘Instilling Novel Thought Patterns and Making Your Long-Term Memory Accountable with Anki’).

Introduction

  • F: The scout mindset is the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were.
  • The book is not a rant about how irrational people are ( [[Thinking, Fast and Slow]]?? , Predictably Irrational), but a tour of a different way of thinking.
What is the “scout mindset”??

The motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were.

Part 1: The Case for Scout Mindset

Chapter 1: Two Types of Thinking

  • F: Directional motivated reasoning:

    • We don’t end up asking “is it true?” when given a new belief or idea.
    • It’s “Can I believe it?” if it’s in line with our beliefs.
    • It’s “Must I believe it?” if it’s not in line with out beliefs.
    • For rationality, your motives shouldn’t distort your ability to discern true from false.

  • Differences in the Soldier vs the Scout:

    • Reasoning is like defensive combat -> Reasoning is like map making.
    • F: “Can I believe this?"/“Must I believe this?” -> “Is this true?”
    • F: Finding out your wrong means suffering a defeat -> Finding out you’re wrong means revising your map.
    • Seek out evidence to fortify and defend your beliefs -> Seek out evidence that will make your map more accurate.

  • Soldier concepts:

    • Directionally motivated reasoning
    • Rationalizing
    • Denial
    • Self-deception
    • Wishful thinking

  • Scout concepts:

    • Accuracy motivated reasoning
    • Truth-seeking
    • Discovery
    • Objectivity
    • Intellectual honesty
What is directionally motivated reasoning??

Where you put your effort into finding evidence or reasons that support what we want to believe.

What does a scout change “Can I believe this?” or “Must I believe this?” to??

“Is this true?”

Why is it called the “scout mindset”??

Because scouts are interested in having maps that reflect the territory rather than what they want to believe.

Chapter 2: What the Soldier is Protecting

  • F: Chesterson’s fence: You shouldn’t advocate for changing something until you understand why it is that way in the first place.

  • People use the “soldier mindset” for six main categories:

    • Comfort
    • Self-esteem
    • Morale
    • Persuasion
    • Image
    • Belonging

  • Comfort:

    • Avoiding unpleasant emotions
    • F: Sour grapes: I can’t achieve this, so it wasn’t good anyway.
    • F: Sweet lemons: I have to put up with this, so it’s a blessing in disguise.
    • Emotional benefits

  • Self-esteem:

    • Feeling good about ourselves
    • If we distort the truth (by saying that luck plays a smaller role than it actually does) we can feel better
    • Emotinal benefits

  • Morale:

    • Self-deception makes it easier to do hard things
    • We only have successful entrepreneurs because we have loads of them that think they will be successful.
    • Emotional benefits

  • Persuasian:

    • Convince ourselves so that we can more effectively convince others.

  • Image:

    • Beliefs are like clothes
    • We choose beliefs that make us look good

  • Belonging:

    • Fitting in to your social group
    • Deferring to the consensus of the group you’re a part of is normally a wise heuristic.

  • Rather than boosting self-esteem by denying your flaws, you could instead boost your self-esteem by noticing and fixing those flaws.

What is Chesterton’s Fence??

The idea that you shouldn’t advocate for changing something until you understood fully why it’s that way in the first place.

What is a “sour grape” argument??

“I can’t achieve this, so it wasn’t good anyway”

What is a “sweet lemon” argument??

“This problem I can’t get rid of is actually a blessing in disguise”

Why do people use a solider mindset??

Because it avoids emotional and social discomfort.

Why do people use a scout mindset??

Because it lets them make more accurate judgement calls.

Chapter 3: Why the Truth is More Valuable Than We Realise

  • Rational irrationality hypothesis – people are just irrational enough in their epistemic beliefs in order to have the highest level of instrumental rationality.
  • Not neccessarily true.
  • F: Epistemic rationality: Holding beliefs that are well justified.
  • F: Instrumental rationality: Acting effectively to achieve your goals.
  • This is the purpose of “the dark arts”.
  • F: Present bias: We care too much about short-term consequences and too little about long-term consequences.
  • Example of present bias is turning off an alarm and sinking blissfully back into sleep; turning off the alarm is a bigger motivator since rewards of sleeping are immediate.
  • F: Practicing the scout mindset improves the skill of doing hard things and the broader habit of following through on your promises to yourself.
  • F: When you tell a lie, it’s hard to predict exactly what you’ve just committed your future self to.
  • People lie to their doctors: forgo the health cost to make up for the social cost.
  • F: “In reality, other people aren’t thinking about you nearly as much as you intuitvely think they are, and their opinions of you don’t have nearly as much impact on your life as it feels they do.”
  • Immediate payoffs from the soldier mindset mean we are far too willing to sacrifice our ability to see clearly in exchange for short-term emotional and social awards.
What is epistemic rationality??

Holding accurate beliefs.

What is instrumental rationality??

Acting effectively to achieve your goals.

What is present bias??

Caring more about the immediate payoffs in the short term than the long term consequences.

“It doesn’t matter if I turn off my alarm and go back to sleep” What bias is this an example of??

Present bias.

What skill does avoiding present bias help develop??

The habit of following through on your promises to yourself.

Why is telling a lie a bad thing??

It’s hard to predict exactly what you’ve just committed your future self to.

“In reality, other people”…??

“aren’t thinking about you nearly as much as you intuitively think they are, and their opinions of you don’t have nearly as much impact on your life as it feels they do”.

Part 2: Developing Self-Awareness

Chapter 4: Signs of a Scout

  • Feeling objective doesn’t make you a scout: The more objective you think you are, the more you think you trust your intuitions as accurate representations of reality.
  • Being smart and knowledgeable doesn’t make you a scout: The smarter you are, the more likely you are to hold polarising views.
  • How do you tell if you’re a scout? Point to concrete cases in which you show scout behaviour.
  • Signs of a scout:
    • Do you tell other people when you realize they were right?
    • How do you react to personal criticism?
    • Do you ever prove yourself wrong?
    • Do you take precautions to avoid fooling yourself?
    • Do you have any good critics?
  • Blind data analysis: modifying or coding data to hide the true results which could skew objective analysis.
  • F: You can get a much more objective evaluation of an disagreement from someone else by not revealing whose side you were on first.
How can you get a friend to give a more objective evaluation of a disagreement between yourself and another person??

Explain the disagreement without revealing which side you’re on.

Chapter 5: Noticing Bias

  • F: Card trick.
  • F: You can detect bias by using a thought experiment to hop into the counterfactual world, where you can find out if your preferences change as you modify supposedly irrelevant details of the scenario.
  • F: Double standard test:
    • Are you judging one person by a different standard than you would judge yourself by?
    • “If I was in their situation, would I make their choices?”
    • “If the democrats used this polticial technique, would I be annoyed or impressed?”
  • F: Outsider test:
    • How would you evaluate this situation if it wasn’t your situation?
    • “What would someone who just stepped into my shoes do in this situation”
  • F: Be a new homunculus:
    • Be a new homunculus, Replacing Guilt.
    • Pretend you’re a fresh homunculus and re-evaluate your situation “under new management”.
    • “The other homunculus felt guilty when he missed the party, I don’t feel guilty anymore.”
  • F: Conformity test:
    • If others no longer held this view, would you still hold it?
    • “If a friend suddenly revealed they were lying about their opinion, how would you react?”
  • F: Selective skeptic test:
    • If the evidence supported the other side, how credible would you judge it to be?
    • “If this study actually supported my side, would I be scrutinizing their methodology for flaws?”
  • F: Status quo bias test:
    • If your current situation was not the status quo, would you actively choose it?
    • “If I was already at a University away from my friends, would I actively choose coming back?”
How can you force one of two cards that are face down on a table??

Say “Ok, we’ll remove this one” or “Ok, this one is yours” depending on the card they pick.

Why are thought experiments good for detecting biased reasoning??

Because it allows you to see if your preferences would change when you modified supposedly irrelevant details.

How can you perform a double standard test??

Am I judging one person by a different standard than I would judge another person by?

“If the democrats used this political technique, would I be annoyed or impressed?” is an example of which reasoning test??

The double standard test.

How can you perform an outsider test??

How would you evaluate this situation if it wasn’t my situation?

“What would someone who just stepped into my shoes do in this situation?” is an example of which reasoning test??

The outsider test.

How can you “be a new homunculus”?

Pretend you’re “under new management” and reevaluate your situation.

“The other homunculus felt guilty when he missed the party, I don’t feel guilty anymore” is an example of what technique??

Becoming a new homunculus.

How can you perform a conformity test?

If other people no longer held this view, would I still hold it?

“If this person suddenly revealed they were lying about their opinion, would I still feel the same way?” is an example of which reasoning test??

The conformity test.

How can you perform a selective skeptic test??

If the evidence supported the other side, how credible would I judge it to be?

“If this study actually supported my side, would I still be scrutinizing their methodology for flaws?” is an example of which reasoning test??

The selective skeptic test.

How can you perform a status quo bias test??

If the current situation was not the status quo, would I actively choose it?

“If I was already at University away from my friends, would I actively choose coming back?” is an example of which reasoning test??

The status quo bias test.

Chapter 6: How Sure are You?

  • Thinking in terms of bets can switch goals from “make a claim” to “actually try and get the right answer”.
  • F: A bet is any decision in which you stand to gain or lose something of value, depending on the outcome.
  • It’s better to think in terms of “How would I bet on this, if there was something at stake?” instead of “What can I get away with claiming to myself”.
  • F: Suppose that you would win $1000 if you got it right – how would this change your beliefs?
  • You can work out your odds for something by finding an equivalent bet.
What is a bet??

Any decision in which you stand to gain or lose something of value, depending on the outcome.

How can you use bets in decision making??

Pretend there was a $10,000 incentive to make the right decision. How would things change?

Part 3: Thriving Without Illusions

Chapter 7: Coping with Reality

  • You can’t do things you can’t do… “you are doing the best you can. You can only do the best you can”.

  • F: “…Just asked Charles Darwin. He suffered from bouts of crippling anxiety, especially when his book was being attacked by critics. (“I am very poorly today & very stupid & hate everybody & everthing”)”

  • It’s better to select coping strategies that don’t mess with the accuracy of your judgement.

  • Make a plan:

    • Make a plan for improving the situation.
    • Even if you don’t feel like following through on the plan, having a plan ready to go can make a big difference.

  • Notice silver linings:

    • If you’re in the middle of an argument and you realise the other person is correct, concede the argument. Notice that conceding the argument gives you credit.
    • You’re only trying to recognize a silver lining, not convincing yourself the whole cloud is silver – that’s turning it into a sweet lemon.

  • Focus on a different goal:

    • If failing to achieve a goal is making you sad or angry, substitute it with another goal that is still useful but not incompatible.
    • If you “always pride yourself on being the best programmed in the room” when doing programming interviews, you could switch to “priding yourself on being an astute judge of programming talent.”

  • Things could be worse:

    • Consider that your situation could be much worse than it is currently.

  • Cope by focusing on how much better you’re going to be in the future when you bounce back.

  • This applies well to critism; don’t be sad about it, know that you are improving.

What did Charles Darwin write to his friend when anxious about his theory??

“I am very poorly today & very stupid & hate everybody & everything”

Chapter 8: Motivation without Self-Deception

  • A popular way of finding motivation is the “self-belief model of success” where you convince yourself that you will succeed, you’ll be motivated to attempt hard things persist in the fact of setbacks.
  • The issue with self-belief motivation is that it clouds your judgement of what the odds actually are, which could lead to dissapointment down the line.
  • Self-belief motivation makes it impossible to ask questions like:
    • Is this goal desireable to be worth the risk?
    • Are there any other goals that would be similarly desireable but require less risk?
  • There shouldn’t be a clear divide between “decision making” and “executition” stages of persuing a goal. (This sounds like the idea of an online agent from [[AI: A Modern Approach]]N).
  • “Elon Musk: If something’s important enough you should try”.
  • Scouts aren’t motivated by “this is going to succeed”, they’re motivated by “this is a bet worth taking”.
  • You should make decisions based on expected value.
  • Random variance can cause surprising things, but as long as you continue making positive expected value bets, the variance will mostly wash out in the long run.
  • Bezos imagined being eighty years old and looking back at his life choices.
  • Nate Soares, Minding Our Way: “You want to get into a mental state where if the bad outcome comes to pass, you will only nod your head and say ‘I knew this card was in the deck, and I knew the odds, and I would make the same bets again, given the same opportunities.” – This is from [[Replacing Guilt]]N!
  • The scout is motivated by the knowledge that they are making a smart bet.
Rather than using self-belief as a motivation source, how does a scout remain motivated??

Thinking “this is a bet worth taking”.

Chapter 9: Influence without Overconfidence

  • There are two types of confidence:

    • F: Epistemic confidence, certainty about what’s true.
    • F: Social confidence, self-assurance.

  • People judge you on your social confidence rather than your epistemic confidence, so you can be confident but still make accurate judgements about things.

  • Benjamin Franklin was a master of this:

    • “I think…”
    • “If I’m not mistaken…”
    • “It appears to me at present…”

  • People boost their social confidence through:

    • Practicing speaking up in groups
    • Hiring a speach coach
    • Dressing better
    • Improving your posture

  • People prefer uncertainty from an explanation of a messy and unpredictable reality rather than due to ignorance or inexperience.

  • Tips:

    • Show that uncetainty is justified, not from ignorance.
    • Give informed estimates, crunch the numbers
    • Have a plan about how you are improving your odds

  • Summary:

    • You don’t need to hold your opnions with 100 percent certainty in order to seem confident and competent.
    • Expressing uncertainty isn’t neccessarily a bad thing, just try to demonstrate whether the uncertainty is “in you” or “in the world”.
    • You can be inspiring without overprimising, by painting an accurate picture of the world you’re trying to create.

  • The scout mindset might have an immediate short term cost but you improve in the long run.

What is epistemic confidence??

Having certainty about what’s ture.

What is social confidence??

Communicating clearly and effectively so that people want to listen.

Part 4: Changing your Mind

Chapter 10: How to be Wrong

  • Superforcasters – individuals who outperfom the majority of experts on predicting issues – are constantly updating their beliefs and incrementally changing their minds as they recieve new information.
  • People do this all the time but not so much about politics, religion, etc.
  • People defend their inaccurate predictions in 7 main ways, 2 of which are:
    • “I was almost right”, “if XYZ had happened…”
    • “Politics is hopelessly cloudlike”, “these things are impossible to predict anyway…”
  • Don’t view being wrong as an issue or something to be dissapointed about, use it as an opportunity to hone your technique and improve judgement in general.
  • Some examples of domain-general lessons you might learn over time:
    • It’s easy to be fooled by cherry-picked evidence.
    • If it seems like someone is saying something dumb, I might be misunderstanding them.
    • Even when I feel certain, there’s still a chance I’m wrong.
  • These might seem obvious, but there’s a difference between “knowing” them and having them internalised.
  • Being wrong doesn’t mean you did something wrong.
  • Bayesians “update” their beliefs, which feels much more routine and low-key rather than “admitting a mistake”.
What’s a healthier way of considering “admitting you were wrong”??

An update.

Chapter 11: Lean in to Confusion

  • F: You should resist the urge to dismiss details that don’t fit your theories.
  • When behaviour confuses you, lean into that confusion. Why does it confuse you? Are they interpreting the situation differently?
  • From “Never Split the Difference”, a book about kidnapping negotiation: “it is when we hear or see something that doesn’t make sense – something ‘crazy’ – that a crucial fork in the road is presented”.
  • People percieve social situations differently. That’s why admitting “well, this is awkward” can seem like a good idea or a bad idea to some people.
  • One homeopathic hospital was doing better at treating cholera than other hospitals, but they dismissed it. If they’d leaned into the curiosity of why that was the case, they would’ve discovered that they were using non-homeopathic ways of treating patients that actualy worked.
  • Paradigm shift:
    • Originally from Thomas Kuhn’s “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”.
    • F: Start out with a core belief that everyone assumes is true, people observe anomalies that are initially regarded as mistakes.
    • The more anomalies accumulate means you end up with a paradigm shift – a new theory or way of looking at things that makes everything make sense again.
  • Take mental notes: This evidence stretches my theory by a little (or a lot).
  • It’s about inverting the way you’re used to seeing the world. Instead of dismissing contradictions, get curious about them.
  • F: Scouts think of anomalies as puzzle pieces to collect as you go through the world.
  • F: “The most exciting phrase to hear in science, that one that heralds new discoviers, is not ‘Eureka’ but ‘That’s funny…'”.
Some evidence has just been presented that doesn’t quite fit your theory or models. What should you do??

Take a mental note that the evidence stretches your theory.

What is “leaning into confusion”??

Getting curious about anomalies rather than dismissing them.

What is a paradigm shift??

Where the accumulation of anomalies over time means there is a new theory proposed that explains them.

How do scouts think of anomalies??

Puzzle pieces to collect as you go through the world.

What famous quote from Isaac Asimov is about leaning into confusion??

“The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not ‘Eureka’ but ‘That’s funny…'”

Chapter 12: Escape your Echo Chamber

  • Listening to people on the other side of the argument doesn’t make it easier to be open to their arguments; studies have shown it actually makes it worse.
  • You should instead:
    • Listen to people you find reasonable
    • Listen to people you share intellectual common ground with
    • Listen to people who share your goals
  • It’s not easy for well-informed, reasonable people to agree because:
    • We misunderstand each other’s views – correct ideas sound wrong when you first hear them.
    • Bad arguments inoculate us against good arguments
    • Our beliefs are interdependent – changing one requires changing others
  • “It’s not possible to cause harm if you’re well-intentioned” is a fallacy.
  • Most people assume their map of reality is supposed to already be correct.
  • F: Think “It seems like this person is wrong, but maybe I’m misunderstanding hum – let me check”.

Part 5: Rethinking Identity

Chapter 13: How Beliefs Become Identities

  • Why is it an age-old rule of etiquette that you’re not supposed to make conversation about politics or religion. Why? Because someone criticzes a belief that’s part of your identity, it’s antagonizing.

  • How can identities come to form?

  • When you feel embatteled:

    • If feel like you’re under attack or being discriminated against, it becomes easier for a belief to turn into an identity.

  • When you feel proud:

    • If you feel like a belief has become some virtue you take pride in.
    • Feeling proud and feeling embatteled often feed into each other.

  • The, uhhh, probability wars:

    • “Mine eyes have seen the glory of the Reverend Thomas Bayes
    • He is stamping out frequentists and their incoherent ways…
    • Glory, glory, probability!
    • Glory, glory, subjectibity!
    • His troops are marching on!”

  • How can you spot a belief that a belief has become an identity?

    • Using phrases like “I believe”
    • Getting annoyed when an ideology is criticzed.
    • Defiant language: “Pround nerd”, “The unapologetic case for…”
    • A righteous tone: Period. Full Stop. End of story.
    • Gatekeeping: “You can’t call yourself a…”
    • Schadenfreude: Finding pleasure in the failure of opposing groups.
    • Epithets: Libtards, neckbeards, woke brigade
    • Having to defend your view: changing your mind will eventually feel like letting the enemy win

  • Identity wrecks your ability to think clearly.

Why is making a belief part of your identity not always a good thing??

It wrecks your ability to think clearly.

What are some beliefs that commonly become part of your identity??
  • Veganism
  • Religion
  • Politics
What’s an example of a identity “war” that wasn’t about a hot topic??

The probability wars, frequentists vs Bayesians.

If you get annoyed when an ideology is criticized, what might have happened??

That belief has become part of your identity.

Chapter 14: Hold Your Identity Lightly

  • Keep Your Identity Small, Paul Graham:
    • “The more labels you have for yourself, the dumber they make you”.
  • You can keep your identity, but just make sure they don’t colonize your thoughts and values. This is called “holding your identity lightly”.
  • F: Holding your identity lightly: Using identity in a matter-of-fact way rather than a source of pride or meaning in your life.
  • Treat identity as contingent: “I’m XYZ, as long as it seems that XYZ is good.”
  • F: Ideological Turing Test: Do you understand the opposition well enough that you could explain it just as well as a believer would?
  • You shouldn’t use an ideological Turing test to caricature your idealogical opponents.
  • F: It’s hard to change someone’s mind when you feel morally and intellectually superior to them.
  • “The better your message makes you feel about yourself, the less likely it is that you are convincing anyone else”.
  • Narcissism of small differences: Spending the bulk of your energy fighting with other people that are already in 95% agreement to try win over the remaining 5%.
  • To be an effective activist you need to be able to perceive when it will be most impactful to co-operate, and when it will be most impactful to disrupt, on a case-by-case basis.
What is holding your identity lightly??

Treating it in matter-of-fact way rather than as a source of deep meaning.

What question do you ask for an ideological Turing test??

Do you understand the opposition well enough that you could explain it just as well as a believer would?

Why can holding an identity lightly make it easier to change someone’s mind??

Because you don’t feel morally and intellectually superior to them.

Chapter 15: A Scout Identity

  • Hold a scout identity: make sure it’s a deep personal value to seek out the truth.
  • F: Identity is a hack for making long term effects matter more than short term effects: [[Identity Assertions]]?? .
    • “I’m the kind of person who follows through on their promises” is better than “I shouldn’t break promises to myself”.
    • “I’m not the kind of person who takes cheap shots.”
    • “I don’t make excuses for myself”.
    • They “change the landscape of emotional incentives” to make long term things matter more.
  • Aim to please the kind of people who you’d most like to have around.
  • You can choose your role models.
  • Intellectually honorable: wanting the truth to win out, and putting that principle above your own ego.
How can you use identity to your advantage??

Use it as a way of making long term commitments matter more than short term incentives.

Why is “I don’t make excuses for myself” better than “I shouldn’t make excuses for myself”??

Because you get a sense of pride that it’s part of your identity.

Conclusion

  • Most people think you have to choose between being happy and being realistic.
  • Some actionable things:
    • The next time you’re making a decision, ask yourself what kind of bias could be affecting your judgement, and then do the relevant though experiment.
    • When you notice yourself making a claim with certainty, ask yourself how sure you really are.
    • The next time a worry pops into your head and you’re tempted to rationalize it away, instead make a concrete plan for how you would deal with it if it came true.
    • Find an author, media outlet, or other opinion source holds different views from you, but who has a better-than-average shot at changing your mind – someone you find reasonable or with whom you share common ground.
    • The next time you notice someone being “irrational”, “crazy” or “rude”, get curious about why their behavior might make sense to them.
    • Look for opportunities to update at least a little bit. Can you find a caveat or exception to one of your beliefs, or a bit of empirical evidence that should make you slightly less confident in your position?
    • Think back to a disagreement you had with someone in the pasts on which your perspective has since shifted and reach out to that person to let them know you’ve updated.
    • Pick a belief you hold strongly and attempt an ideological Turing test.
I am about to make a big decision. What should I do??

Ask what kind of bias could be affecting my judgement.

I am making a claim with certainty (there’s no way…). What should I do??

Ask myself how sure I really am.

I am worried about a possibility and am just about to rationalize it away. What should I do instead??

Make a plan for how I’m going to deal with it if it comes true.

I feel like someone if being irrational, crazy or rude. What should I ask myself??

Why does their behavior make sense to them?

I just noticed something that violated one of my beliefs about the world. What should I do??

Make a mental note that the corresponding belief has just been challenged.

Articles

I was inspired to buy this book by Outline of Galef’s “Scout Mindset” on LessWrong.

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